Berkeley Earth Is 95% Sure 2026 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record

Berkeley Earth, an independent research group in the US, says it is 95% confident that 2026 will be the hottest year on record, beating the previous record set in 2024. The group gave the forecast to BBC News with two months of the year still to go.

The forecast arrived as negotiators met in Antalya, Turkey, for COP31, the latest UN climate summit. Scientists quoted by the BBC put the extra heat down to two causes working together: long-term warming from climate change and an El Niño, the natural Pacific pattern that warms the planet for a while.

What the temperature records show so far

The EU’s Copernicus climate service confirmed on Friday that October was the hottest October on record. Berkeley Earth’s statement is a forecast, so it depends on how the last two months of the year turn out. The group describes its confidence as a probability, at 95%, and has not claimed the record is already certain.

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its own report on Monday and was more cautious. It forecast that 2026 will rank among the four warmest years on record. The WMO also said 2027 is unlikely to bring relief, because an unusually strong El Niño is expected to last into next year and push temperatures up further.

“We have had a run of record warm years,” Dr. Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth told the BBC. He described collapsing glaciers, heatwaves and droughts as what scientists expect as warming continues.

How El Niño and the oceans add heat

Rising carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, mostly from burning fossil fuels, is the main reason global temperatures keep climbing. The extra greenhouse gases trap heat, and about 90% of that trapped heat has gone into the oceans.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explained that El Niño does not create new heat. It moves heat from the ocean into the air, and the ocean is now the warmest scientists have ever measured, so more heat is available for El Niño to release. Saulo said this year’s readings give “new meaning to the phrase off the charts.”

Extreme weather in recent months

Several countries at the summit have seen heat-related disasters this year. The BBC reported large wildfires across Europe and a sudden glacier collapse in Nepal that killed more than 1,000 people.

In the UK, the Met Office has said climate change made this summer’s record heat 130 times more likely. El Niño also raises the risk of flooding in Britain this winter, according to the BBC report. Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief scientist, told BBC Panorama that the country was built for the climate of the 20th century, which no longer exists.

Why it matters

A new annual record would add to a series of record-warm years and show how far the planet has already moved from past conditions. On current trends, the world is heading for 2.8C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to the BBC. That is well above the 1.5C goal in the Paris Agreement, which was set to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Rohde said the changes seen so far could be followed by “much larger and much more dramatic changes” in the future.

There is some progress on the energy side. The International Energy Agency has predicted that growth in renewable energy capacity over the next six years will be 57% greater than in the previous period, although emissions are still rising.

What happens next

COP31 talks will run for two weeks. The Turkish hosts want the meeting to focus on a new goal for electrification, which means shifting energy systems from fossil fuels to electricity, and on cutting waste. Final temperature figures for 2026 will come once the year ends and the records for November and December are in. Readers in areas hit by heat, fire or flooding should follow official warnings from national weather services and local authorities.

Source: BBC News