Copernicus Moves 1.5°C Warming Threshold Forecast to 2029 From 2045
Copernicus now projects global warming will pass the Paris 1.5°C threshold as soon as 2029. What changed since 2015 and what Climate Action Tracker found.
Global warming is now projected to pass the Paris Agreement’s long-term threshold of 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5°C) above the preindustrial average as soon as 2029, according to the European Union’s Copernicus climate change service. When the agreement was adopted in 2015, the same crossing was expected around 2045.
Copernicus released the bulletin on Thursday during the United Nations COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, Ars Technica reported. The EU scientists said warming has sped up significantly since the Paris deal was signed.
Projected crossing moves from 2045 to 2029
The new date comes from a projection of where the average global temperature is heading. After another decade of global climate summits, the projected crossing has moved much closer than it looked when the Paris pact was signed.
In their bulletin, the Copernicus scientists wrote that the shift suggests “global warming has accelerated in recent years.” They also said they do not yet understand every part of the recent rapid rise in global temperature. Even so, they named rising concentrations of greenhouse gases released by human activity as the main driver of the trend.
The bulletin is a projection, so the exact year depends on how temperatures and emissions develop.
Climate Action Tracker: nearly 5 degrees by 2100
A second report released the same day looked further ahead. Climate Action Tracker, a nonprofit group that analyzes national climate policies, found that the planet remains on course to warm by nearly 5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.
According to the group, warming on that scale would devastate coral reefs, disrupt farming and forests, and melt most of the world’s ice. Sarah Heck, a climate policy analyst with Climate Analytics, an international climate science and policy institute, said governments have not meaningfully improved the outlook for warming at the end of the century.
Why it matters
The 1.5°C line is the goal that governments set for themselves in Paris. Copernicus now places it within a few years, which leaves far less time than the 2015 outlook suggested for cutting emissions before the threshold is passed.
Current warming has already brought deadly floods, wildfires and catastrophic glacier collapses, said Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, who is attending the U.N. climate talks for the first time since 2021. “The climate crisis is a matter of life and death,” she said at the conference.
What is still uncertain
The Copernicus scientists said some causes of the recent rapid warming are not fully understood, even though greenhouse gases remain the dominant factor. Both reports describe projections based on current trends and policies. The Climate Action Tracker estimate for 2100 reflects the policies governments have in place today, and it would change if those policies change.
The two reports were presented at COP31, where negotiators are meeting this week in Antalya.
Source: Ars Technica
